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PC shipments into the US spiked by 15% in the first quarter of this year as vendors rushed to get ahead of Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, weak demand – especially from consumers – raises question marks over whether anyone will buy them.
Canalys forecasts that total PC shipments in 2025 will increase by only 2%, suggesting there’s going to be a sizeable stockpile of PCs in the US for some time to come.
Vendors may have been anticipating that October’s end-of-support deadline for Windows 10 would accelerate PC sales through 2025, as businesses and consumers look to replace machines incapable of running Windows 11. However, there’s a very mixed reaction to Microsoft’s looming deadline.
Businesses do seem to be responding to the imminent demise of Windows 10, with commercial PC shipments expected to increase by 8% this year. That may be because Microsoft has stiff penalties for businesses that linger on Windows 10, with Extended Security Updates (ESU) costing $61 per machine in year one and doubling every year thereafter.
By contrast, consumers seem less bothered by the threat of running an outdated operating system. Canalys estimates a 4% decline in consumer PC shipments this year, suggesting home PC owners simply aren’t motivated to replace ageing machines.
“This highlights a key reality,” said Kieren Jessop, research manager at Canalys. “Many PC users are indifferent to the Windows 10 EoS [end of support] until it becomes a significant pain point. Consumer PC purchases tend to be largely driven by factors like poor battery life, slow performance or hardware failures.”
There’s also little imminent threat to consumers still running Windows 10, after Microsoft announced a significant backtrack on its support deadline last week. The company will now offer an extra year of free security updates to consumers who synchronise their Windows settings with the cloud or trade in Microsoft points. This effectively eliminates the $30 charge that Microsoft previously announced for ESU on consumer devices.
With Canalys adding that retail inventories are now “relatively well stocked”, there’s every chance that US retailers will reach the end of the year with ageing hardware in their warehouses. That might well mean that US consumers thinking of replacing their PC are better off waiting until the end of the year, when retailers may start offering discounts to get those dust-gathering PCs off their shelves.
And if Microsoft finally announces Windows 12 this year, those discounts could be even bigger.
